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2024 Midyear Outlook

As we enter the last half of 2024, we now have more clarity around just how resilient the U.S. economy is—despite the high-rate environment—and what makes the situation now so different from recent years.

However, many questions remain as we await the Fed’s first rate cut and posit what will happen in the job market, energy market, and broader U.S. economy.

To provide perspective on these topics and more, the investment management team at BOK Financial has prepared an interactive video, online articles and downloadable report.

Download report

Video was recorded prior to President Biden ending his 2024 reelection bid.

Explore these areas of focus

The job market

Overall, the job market has remained strong and supportive of the U.S. consumer, especially in light of how long we’ve been in a high-rate environment. Looking forward, there may be less demand for labor, which should result in less inflationary pressure, without a sharp increase in unemployment. However, labor markets can turn suddenly.

Green plant leaves

Inflation and the Federal Reserve

With economic growth remaining robust and inflation remaining above target, the Fed has been keeping rates higher for longer. This could ultimately tip the economy into recession, though it is still unlikely at this point. Instead, we expect growth to moderate but remain resilient.

Waves crashing against a rocky shoreline

AI, energy and natural resources

One way an economy can grow is through enhancements to productivity, such as through developments in AI. In fact, we believe AI has tremendous potential—if we have the energy and other natural resources to support it. As a result, U.S. energy policy today will have a lasting impact on our competitive position in the world for decades to come.

Interior shot of electrical tower

Financial markets

We are optimistic that economic growth will support financial markets through the remainder of 2024. That said, when stock and credit markets are priced as high as they are, it doesn’t leave much cushion for a financial slowdown, if one were to occur. There is always the potential for outlier scenarios such as escalated geopolitical conflicts.

High-rise buildings in the downtown section of a city

Meet our experts

BOK Financial's experts share their diverse knowledge to break down complex topics, provide timely updates on the state of our economy and dig into industry trends. Get to know these interesting individuals representing just some of our company's areas of expertise.